Gold is Not a Safe Haven – Don’t Be Fooled.

It’s indeed a shining moment. Oh, not for you. For them.

The gold bugs.

gold bug

The zealots who over the last three years have been advising investors to purchase gold. They’ve been correct for roughly two weeks. There’s been a stealth bounce in gold prices.

Frankly, gold investors appear to be in a perpetual frenzy. Pundits who preach gold are steadfast in their conviction, recommending gold no matter how low it goes. Sooner or later, they were destined to be right.

Well, here is their moment in the golden sun (for now:)

It turns out gold is relatively risky in terms of standard deviation (a measure of risk), and the largest negative returns of gold are close to the ones of stocks. Per the author “gold is generally not a safe haven for bonds in any market. Gold only functions as a safe haven for a limited time, around 15 trading days.”

Now, we’re not saying gold can’t outperform for periods. We just don’t want you to fall for the impression that the metal is some sort of hard-commodity Snuggie, or offers protection for the long term.

The lives of your investments, the heart of them, are designed to be warm and connected — to sales, to services, products, countries. What is gold connected to? Nothing. You can’t even use it to purchase toothpaste. I tried.

Once I attempted to pay for a subscription to a gold newsletter with gold. I created mass confusion. Enough for an operator to disconnect me. Before rudely dismissed, I was notified by a manager that the writers of this monthly periodical (very popular) would happily accept any of my major credit cards. Or a personal check. Which of course, is backed by the dollar balance in my bank account. Not gold.

Remember: Gold newsletter marketers bank dollars (not gold). Some prey on your fear and paranoia.

Gold’s relevance ebbs and flows based on our fear of the unknown or circumstances beyond our control. How did something of the earth become a store of wealth? Why not apples? At least you can eat apples. If the end of the world does come, you’ll seek apples over rock.

In the apocalyptic science fiction movie “The Book of Eli,” Denzel Washington’s character uses Wet Wipes as a medium of exchange. I’d even take them over gold. Our dollars aren’t going away as a medium of exchange and will be backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. We are not returning to a gold standard as much as Rand Paul would like to think.

Following a doomsday scenario, think of it this way: If gold is winning, then for the most part, you are losing. So pray it continues to be a lousy long-term investment. If gold is rising, most of everything else you own is falling. Not good. It’s in your best interest that gold fails.

There does not exist an academic study nor empirical data which proves gold as an effective inflation hedge. None. The pattern is random at best. Again, owning gold may provide a level of emotional comfort. That’s fine. More often gold prospers when there is instability or lack of confidence in a fiat currency. Could be inflation, also deflation. Regardless, the relationship to inflation or the dollar, is random at best:

Gold is portfolio protection — you’ve heard that one. The message is pervasive on television and radio. No. It has been and continues to be plain old U.S. Treasury securities. Want real diversification or protection? Cash and U.S. bonds do the job:

So you still want to own gold? If you must, keep your allocation limited to 5% of invested assets. There are several methods to consider. Obviously, you may own the medal directly — jewelry, coins, bars. You can investigate gold prices through goldprice.org.

The more efficient and liquid methods are through low-cost exchange-traded funds like SPDR Gold Shares GLD, -0.32%   or no-load mutual funds. The Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund, VGPMX, -1.45%   which is inclusive of other precious metals in addition to miners, has an expense ratio of .29%. Regardless, you’ll require tremendous patience as an investor in this category. Be prepared for long periods of under- as well as over-performance.

True wealth comes from achieving more household cash inflow vs. outflow, combining assets that diversify, managing portfolio risk by preserving capital through market drawdowns, and managing emotions through good and bad market cycles.

Performance of gold compared with the S&P 500 SPX, -1.53% :

Richard M. Rosso is a senior financial adviser with Clarity Financial in Houston. Lance Roberts is a general partner and CEO of STA Wealth Management in Houston.

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s